RE-ENDETTEMENT VS MORATOIRE : LEQUEL VA RÉUSSIR A FAIRE PAYER LES POPULATIONS?
Ré-endettement contre Moratoire : lequel va réussir à faire payer les populations ? C’est autour de cette question que le juriste béninois Nourou Dine Saka Saley a livré sa réflexion sur sa page officielle Facebook…
Si les pays en général, et africains en particulier, ne savent pas quel sera l’état de leurs économies dans la perspective de cette crise sanitaire, et forcément économique et sociale, une chose est certaine à minima, c’est qu’ils savent tous ce qu’ils seront exposés à des dépenses qui sont immédiates et incontournables.
Ils ont donc besoin de ressources. La grande différence entre les pays est de savoir s’il s’agit de ressources supplémentaires, ce qui suppose un socle interne à renforcer, ou s’il s’agit de compter prioritairement (voire exclusivement) sur les ressources extérieures parce que les ressources internes seraient quasi inexistantes.
Pour preuve, la réactivité sociale des pays à travers les mesures d’accompagnement n’a pas été la même d’un pays à l’autre. Loin de traduire une approche de gestion différente, la cause principale est la disparité dans les ressources disponibles au sein des caisses de chacun des pays.
La décision de préférer donc un réendettement à un moratoire sur le remboursement des dettes en cours, dépend donc de la capacité en ressources propres actuelles de chaque Etat.
Le débat sur la sur les différentes théories de ré endettement ou de moratoire, qui se passe actuellement je crois personnellement qu’il faille l’avoir en évaluant la situation pays par pays.
La thèse prudentialiste, pour laquelle j’ai un penchant, propose plutôt d’aller vers la solution du moratoire qui a le mérite de permettre aux Etats, et dans l’immédiat, de ne pas dédier leurs ressources internes au remboursement. Un tien vaut mieux que deux, tu l’auras dit on.
Un pays ne peut courageusement prôner l’endettement que s’il a une connaissance et une capacité suffisante de pouvoir se projeter dans l’avenir et pouvoir décider de s’endetter ou pas. Enfin c’est à espérer. Et si le Bénin fait cette option, il faut s’en flatter car ce serait la preuve de notre robuste économie malgré les effets imprévisibles de la crise liée au Covid.
Mais aujourd’hui, qui peut sereinement se projeter dans l’avenir sur un plan économique, là où le baril de pétrole connaît des valeurs négatives ?
Dans le cas de notre pays, la crise du Covid est venue un peu couvrir une difficulté économique bilatérale, certaine dans ses effets et incertaine sur sa durée, liée à la fermeture des frontières avec le Nigéria, et qui diminuait les ressources internes.
Si au regard des multiples recours au marché financier sous régional, notre capacité d’endettement via ces instruments financiers seulement ne semble pas mise à mal, cela ne présage cependant pas d’une capacité de remboursement sereine.
Ma précision sur le traitement spécifique de l’endettement à travers les instruments financiers sous régionaux (emprunts, OAT…) n’est pas anodine.
Un recours aux emprunts à des taux concessionnels auprès des institutions de Bretton woods, dans ce contexte de crise du Covid19, aiderait forcément à restructurer les endettements antérieurs via emprunts et autres.
Emprunter à 0% pour rembourser les emprunts effectués à 6 ou 7%.. Astucieux.
Il faut plutôt se poser la question réaliste : Avons nous dans nos caisses de quoi faire face immédiatement au revers économique et social des crises qui nous frappent, c’est à dire celle sous régionale issue du Nigeria et celle mondiale liée au Covid ? Ou alors doit on d’abord compter sur l’endettement et le réendettement ?
Seul un béninois devin peut nous répondre à la question, sachant que le peuple n’a qu’un seul choix : travailler pour payer quel que sera le gagnant entre le réendettement et le moratoire.
Notre monde ne sera plus le même….sur tous les plans et tous les rapports de force antan connus.
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