ÉCONOMIE : PAYS À REVENU INTERMÉDIAIRE SELON LE DERNIER CLASSEMENT DE LA BANQUE MONDIALE : QUELLES IMPLICATIONS?
Le Bénin devient un pays à revenu intermédiaire : une réflexion sur le plan du développement et de la réduction de la pauvreté
Un communiqué du Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances (MEF) en date du 03 juillet 2020 a porté à l’attention des béninois le passage du Bénin de la catégorie de « pays à revenu faible » à la catégorie de « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure » selon le récent classement de la Banque Mondiale. Cette nouvelle position du Bénin fait suite à l’actualisation annuelle de la classification des pays par la Banque Mondiale en quatre catégories à savoir « pays à revenu faible », « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure », « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche supérieure » et « pays à revenu élevé ».
D’après le communiqué du MEF, les performances économiques enregistrées par le Bénin au titre de l’année 2019 et qui lui ont valu cette nouvelle position sont le résultat de l’ensemble des réformes mises en œuvre par le Gouvernement depuis 2016 ainsi que l’amélioration du système de comptabilité nationale (changement de l’année de base dans le calcul et l’estimation des agrégats macroéconomiques). Tout ceci a induit une accélération continue du rythme de création de la richesse nationale et un affinement de son estimation. Il s’agit d’une première dans l’histoire économique du Bénin, rappelle le communiqué du MEF et le Bénin rejoint ainsi le groupe des pays comme la Côte d’Ivoire, le Maroc, le Sénégal, etc… Loin de toute polémique et débat sur la véracité des statistiques et la pertinence du changement de l’année de base dans le calcul des comptes nationaux, il y a lieu de féliciter l’ensemble du peuple béninois pour cette performance historique. C’est le fruit du travail collectif du Gouvernement, de l’Administration Publique, du Secteur Privé, de la Société Civile, et de l’ensemble des béninois.
Quels sont les avantages que le Bénin devrait attendre de sa nouvelle position ?
Le nouveau statut de pays à revenu intermédiaire du Bénin pourrait s’accompagner de plusieurs avantages et opportunités sur le plan économique. L’un des avantages ou opportunités les plus importants dont le Bénin pourrait bénéficier est un accroissement du flux d’investissement. En effet, la hausse du revenu par habitant exprime implicitement une amélioration du revenu et du pouvoir d’achat du béninois moyen. En théorie économique, la hausse du revenu s’accompagne d’une augmentation de la consommation et de l’épargne. Les investisseurs pourraient alors davantage s’intéresser aux consommateurs béninois dont le pouvoir d’achat s’est potentiellement amélioré. Par ailleurs, la hausse de l’épargne pourrait renforcer elle aussi la capacité des institutions financières à financer l’activité économique à travers l’investissement. In fine, le Bénin pourrait s’attendre entre autres à une dynamisation plus accrue de son économie.
Le devoir de maintenir le cap…
Le statut de « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure » n’est pas un statut permanent et définitif. Il est attribué chaque année en fonction d’une évaluation des performances économiques de l’année précédente. Ceci signifie que le Bénin peut dans les années à venir soit maintenir son nouveau statut de « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure », soit faire évoluer son statut dans la catégorie des « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche supérieure » ou soit retourner dans la catégorie des « pays à revenu faible ». Il faudra donc poursuivre et améliorer les réformes entamées afin de maintenir le cap et permettre au Bénin de maintenir son nouveau statut dans le temps tout en travaillant à le faire évoluer dans la catégorie supérieure. Le scénario d’un retour à la catégorie de « pays à revenu faible » doit être évité et ceci requiert l’action concertée de tous les acteurs de développement du pays. Certains pays ont par exemple connu cette mauvaise fortune au titre de l’année 2019. C’est le cas de l’Algérie qui est passée de la catégorie de « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche supérieure » à « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure » et du Soudan qui est passé de « pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure » à « pays à revenu faible. Il est du devoir et de la responsabilité de tous les béninois de travailler à éviter un tel scénario.
Quelle analyse sur le plan du développement et de la réduction de la pauvreté ?
Bien que le Bénin soit désormais un pays à revenu intermédiaire, les défis restent nombreux en ce qui concerne le développement. C’est ce qui justifie sans doute la réaction de beaucoup de béninois à la lecture du communiqué du MEF. Beaucoup de citoyens béninois ne se retrouvent pas dans les performances économiques évoquées par le MEF simplement parce que leurs difficultés quotidiennes et leurs conditions de vie ne semblent pas s’améliorer. Ce qu’il faut comprendre c’est que le Bénin malgré son nouveau statut demeure un pays en développement à l’instar de tous les autres pays à revenu intermédiaire. Cela signifie que la majorité des béninois n’accède pas encore à tous leurs besoins vitaux.
En effet, le revenu national par habitant qui permet de classer les pays dans l’une des catégories susmentionnées est un indicateur qui présente des forces et des faiblesses. D’un point de vue macroéconomique il permet entre autres de comparer les pays et de se faire une idée du niveau de vie potentiel d’un « individu moyen » dans chaque pays. Mais d’un point de vue microéconomique, il présente beaucoup de faiblesses en ce sens qu’il masque les réalités sur la dynamique de la pauvreté et ne prend pas en compte le caractère qualitatif et multidimensionnel du développement. Les données empiriques dans la plupart des pays en développement montrent d’ailleurs à ce propos que les performances économiques peinent souvent à être traduites en développement en raison de la mauvaise répartition de la richesse et de l’inefficacité des politiques de développement. En tant que tel, le Bénin doit désormais redoubler d’efforts sur le plan du développement tout en maintenant le cap sur les performances économiques.
C’est le lieu d’inviter le Gouvernement et tous les acteurs du développement à davantage œuvrer pour des politiques publiques qui favorisent une croissance inclusive et une lutte efficace contre la pauvreté. Dans cette perspective, et tout en continuant à accorder aux performances économiques la place qu’elles méritent, les politiques publiques à mettre en œuvre devraient mettre l’accent sur les déterminants du bien-être des populations et la répartition équitable de la richesse nationale. Pour cela il faudra :
o Agir pour une croissance inclusive
Il s’agira ici d’initier et de poursuivre les réformes structurelles capables de renforcer mutuellement les actions en faveur de la croissance et de l’inclusion. Ceci peut se faire à travers un cadre d’actions mettant l’accent sur les mesures susceptibles de stimuler la production de biens et de services ainsi que sur l’amélioration des revenus et du pouvoir d’achat des populations. Cela permettrait aussi de générer des ressources pour financer les actions sur le plan social et garantir une croissance durable.
o Agir pour une amélioration du bien-être des populations
L’augmentation des revenus et du pouvoir d’achat ne se traduit pas nécessairement par une amélioration durable du bien-être. Les travaux de l’OCDE ont montré qu’une multitude d’aspects n’ayant pas trait au revenu comme par exemple la santé, le niveau d’éducation, les conditions de travail et d’autres aspects de la vie influent sur le bien-être des individus. A ce propos, au Bénin, le chômage des jeunes, la faiblesse du système sanitaire, la faiblesse du système éducatif, les problèmes environnementaux dont les inondations, les difficultés d’accès à l’eau potable et à l’électricité, etc., sont autant de facteurs qui affectent le bien-être des populations et mettent en évidence les multiples enjeux de l’action publique. Ainsi, les politiques à mener ici doivent être orientées dans le sens de l’amélioration des conditions de vie des populations. Il faudra non seulement poursuivre les efforts d’investissements en infrastructures dans les secteurs sociaux (la santé, l’éducation, l’environnement, l’alimentation, l’énergie, l’eau, etc.) mais aussi mettre en œuvre des politiques sociales efficaces qui favorisent un meilleur accès des populations aux services sociaux et qui assainissent leur cadre de vie.
o Agir pour une efficacité des politiques publiques
La nécessité de l’efficacité de l’action publique se justifie par la rareté des ressources et le besoin de qualité dans la dépense publique. Pour un pays en développement ou à revenu intermédiaire comme le Bénin, il est important de s’assurer en amont de la pertinence des choix de politiques publiques et de leur efficacité par la suite. A cet égard, il y a lieu de questionner les déterminants de la prise de décision dans la sphère publique. Qu’est ce qui fonde et éclaire les options de politiques publiques tout en apportant le minimum de garantie quant à leur succès ? Dans cette perspective « la promotion de l’utilisation des données probantes dans la formulation des politiques publiques et la prise de décision » au niveau de l’administration publique et de toutes les sphères de décision pourrait aider à prendre des décisions plus raisonnées et susceptibles d’avoir un meilleur impact sur les populations. A cet égard, il faudra renforcer et systématiser la pratique de l’évaluation des politiques publiques en vue de mettre à la disposition des décideurs des données probantes capables d’éclairer la prise de décision.
Bertrand Bio MAMA, Économiste
Reporter Bénin Monde
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